What are extrapolated results?
Extrapolated results are estimated full-mock scores and grades for students who sat only 1 or 2 of the 3 papers. Taking the marks students achieved on the papers they did sit, the marks are scaled to what they would likely have scored across all three papers, and then awarded a grade using the normal three-paper grade boundaries.
This lets you report a fair, like-for-like mock outcome for every student, even when some papers were missed or not sat, while acknowledging that the estimate is less certain when based on fewer papers.
Why is it useful in this mock context?
1. Fair comparisons across students
Without extrapolation, a student who sat 1 or 2 papers can’t be fairly compared to someone who sat 3.
Extrapolated grades put everyone on the same “out of 3 papers” basis.
2. Keeps the mock data meaningful
You still get:
Class distributions.
Intervention flags even when sittings are incomplete.
3. Helps with data analysis and actions
Allows you to analyse the full year group without having to be mindful of absence rates, which are likely to be lower in the summer exams than they are for mocks.
Student selection for interventions becomes more meaningful. Using the grade from 1 or 2 papers could result in stronger students being selected for interventions that are not needed :
4. Avoids penalising absence
If a paper was missed for illness, timetable clashes, anxiety, etc., extrapolation avoids a misleadingly low grade that’s really just “missing data.”